The Vietnamese real estate market at the end of 2024 is entering a critical phase. Following a prolonged period of stagnation, reports of “apartment price hikes” are surfacing frequently across media platforms and real estate forums. This raises the question: do these price increases genuinely reflect demand and intrinsic value, or are they merely an illusion fueled by speculative psychology and market manipulation?
First, we must examine the factors contributing to the rising prices of apartments. As of late 2024, the supply of apartments in major cities such as Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City is notably constrained. Strict zoning regulations, limited project approvals, and more rigorous legal requirements have significantly reduced the availability of new developments. Simultaneously, the demand for housing among the growing middle class is increasing, especially in central or adjacent urban areas. This supply-demand imbalance exerts considerable upward pressure on prices.
Furthermore, the rising costs of project development—spanning land prices, construction materials, and labor—have escalated considerably in recent years. These cost increases make significant price reductions unlikely, and moderate price growth appears justifiable.
However, we cannot disregard the possibility that this is merely an “illusory bubble.” Historically, the Vietnamese real estate market has seen numerous instances of price inflation driven by speculative tactics. Certain investors and brokers often exploit buyers’ fear of “missing out” to create a perception of rising prices, thereby encouraging rushed purchasing decisions. Claims of “near sell-out” inventory or daily price surges are sometimes nothing more than marketing strategies designed to simulate scarcity.
Additionally, it is important to question whether actual purchasing power can sustain these prices. With mortgage interest rates remaining high and average income levels showing no substantial improvement, the financial capability of end-users remains constrained. This raises doubts about whether most transactions involve genuine homebuyers or are merely speculative trades among investors. If the latter dominates, current apartment prices may not be sustainable in the long term.
From a personal perspective, I believe caution is essential when interpreting reports of apartment price hikes. The real estate market, particularly the apartment segment, is grappling with challenges ranging from supply constraints to financial pressures on buyers. Any price surge must be assessed in the context of these realities rather than relying solely on short-term signals.
To avoid falling into the trap of “illusory bubbles,” prospective homebuyers—especially end-users—should prioritize practical value and personal financial capacity. Careful consideration should be given to location, construction quality, developer reputation, and available amenities before making any purchasing decisions.
The real estate market at the close of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 is poised to experience further volatility. However, sustainable development can only be achieved when prices accurately reflect intrinsic value and genuine demand. It is hoped that both homebuyers and developers will strive toward this objective to foster a more transparent, stable, and equitable market.